A big week for Rod Smith: Davis and Smith bases differ greatly
Tiger Bay Appearance coincides with Palm Beach Endorsements. Is the race between soccer moms and NASCAR dads?
Senator Rod Smith continued his campaign for Governor this past week with several important developments. First, on Sunday he met with the leadership of Palm Beach County’s People’s Choice Political Action Committee. The group headed by Commissioner Burt Aaronson and Political activists Andre’ Fladell will meet with Jim Davis on June 28th. Following this event, Smith received the endorsements of nine key Palm Beach County elected officials.
In a meeting with the editorial board of the St Petersburg Times, Smith pointed out that typical Democratic candidates get beat statewide because they perform so poorly in the areas North of Ocala (except for clusters of liberal voters around Tallahassee and Gainesville). Smith believes he can change that and if he his four previous elections (two as State Attorney and two to the State Senate) are any indication he certainly has a good shot. Scott Maddox whose candidacy appears dead, ran very strongly in most rural counties in the 2002 Attorney General’s Primary. His statewide loss can be attributed to the strength of Buddy Dyer in Central Florida’s I-4 corridor. With Maddox probably out of the race by the time the primary roles around, smith can count on a stronger unified North Florida vote than Maddox got in 2002 versus Dyer. (In many rural counties George Sheldon who ran third took votes that would otherwise have likely gone to Maddox.) At Tiger Bay, Smith was more diplomatic but still on point. Winning a general election in areas Democrats typically lose is the key. Davis can counter that having run several times for office in Florida’s largest media market enables him, not Smith to reach out to the greatest number of voters. Davis’ profile also it can be argued will play well in the Orlando area, the home of the once famous “soccer moms” that were seen as a swing demographic in the 1990s. Smith’s base and potential swing votes come from areas populated heavily by the national media’s new favorite demographic, NASCAR dads and also rabid College Football fans. (The further west you go in the panhandle though, Florida and Florida State get less popular and Alabama and Auburn get more popular. South Florida which is probably the least meaningful area of the State in a General Election is dominated by University of Miami fans. Despite a huge population, South Florida’s turnout percentage lags far behind the rest of the state in both primary and general elections)
Davis may be looking ahead to a General Election based on recent Congressional votes and his campaign schedule. While Davis leads the primary currently by a very large margin, over half the voters are still undecided, something that clearly favors the lesser known Smith. Whomever wins the nomination, an uphill fight against the GOP nominee awaits.
Senator Rod Smith continued his campaign for Governor this past week with several important developments. First, on Sunday he met with the leadership of Palm Beach County’s People’s Choice Political Action Committee. The group headed by Commissioner Burt Aaronson and Political activists Andre’ Fladell will meet with Jim Davis on June 28th. Following this event, Smith received the endorsements of nine key Palm Beach County elected officials.
In a meeting with the editorial board of the St Petersburg Times, Smith pointed out that typical Democratic candidates get beat statewide because they perform so poorly in the areas North of Ocala (except for clusters of liberal voters around Tallahassee and Gainesville). Smith believes he can change that and if he his four previous elections (two as State Attorney and two to the State Senate) are any indication he certainly has a good shot. Scott Maddox whose candidacy appears dead, ran very strongly in most rural counties in the 2002 Attorney General’s Primary. His statewide loss can be attributed to the strength of Buddy Dyer in Central Florida’s I-4 corridor. With Maddox probably out of the race by the time the primary roles around, smith can count on a stronger unified North Florida vote than Maddox got in 2002 versus Dyer. (In many rural counties George Sheldon who ran third took votes that would otherwise have likely gone to Maddox.) At Tiger Bay, Smith was more diplomatic but still on point. Winning a general election in areas Democrats typically lose is the key. Davis can counter that having run several times for office in Florida’s largest media market enables him, not Smith to reach out to the greatest number of voters. Davis’ profile also it can be argued will play well in the Orlando area, the home of the once famous “soccer moms” that were seen as a swing demographic in the 1990s. Smith’s base and potential swing votes come from areas populated heavily by the national media’s new favorite demographic, NASCAR dads and also rabid College Football fans. (The further west you go in the panhandle though, Florida and Florida State get less popular and Alabama and Auburn get more popular. South Florida which is probably the least meaningful area of the State in a General Election is dominated by University of Miami fans. Despite a huge population, South Florida’s turnout percentage lags far behind the rest of the state in both primary and general elections)
Davis may be looking ahead to a General Election based on recent Congressional votes and his campaign schedule. While Davis leads the primary currently by a very large margin, over half the voters are still undecided, something that clearly favors the lesser known Smith. Whomever wins the nomination, an uphill fight against the GOP nominee awaits.
posted by Kartik at 1:41 PM
10 Comments:
Jill, I have long disclosed I'm with Smith and am attempting to be as fair can be on this site. If you remember I posted two weeks ago that I thought that Davis was making a very smart move going to Martin County and siad that Davis was better positioned than Smith to cut GOP margins in some of the critical counties along I-95 such as St Lucie, Martin and Indian River.
Rod Smith has had a big week, so I'm simply recaping what has happened. I've been very fair to Davis, maybe not so fair to Maddox but then again he's not a real factor in the race.
Smith a gun loving, pro sugar mistake for the Democrats. His position on gun control will kill us in the I-4 area and in Southwest Florida.
Turnout will increase in South Florida if Aaronson is on the ticket. Aaronson for LG!
Davis Starts Slowly In Race For Governor
By WILLIAM MARCH
wmarch@tampatrib.com
TAMPA - On paper, Tampa Congressman Jim Davis looks like the front-runner in the Democratic primary for governor.
His base in an Interstate 4 corridor metropolitan area and a congressional seat that has kept him in the eye of the public for eight years should give him advantages over his two competitors, state Sen. Rod Smith, of Alachua, and former state Democratic Party Chairman Scott Maddox.
But with the race just starting, Davis - though off to a slight lead - hasn't put much distance between himself and Smith, who is in second place in fundraising and early polls.
Davis supporters say it's too early to jump to any conclusions.
``Campaigns take time to build,'' said Democratic political consultant Ana Cruz, of Tampa. ``They're going to have to define themselves and differentiate from each other.''
But the only available measures so far - fundraising and early polls - suggest that the congressman won't have an easy time disposing of the state senator. The battle is reminding some of the Bill McBride versus Janet Reno Democratic gubernatorial primary in 2002, where two candidates with different power bases waged a friendly but tight battle that McBride won in a photo finish.
In the money race, Smith is nipping at Davis' heels, having raised about $725,797 to Davis' $811,726.
In polls, which measure little other than name recognition at this early stage, Davis has been leading Smith by about 10 percentage points, but with nearly half the Democratic voters undecided.
The most recent poll, done in July by the Strategic Vision consulting firm of Atlanta, showed 26 percent of respondents backing Davis, 15 percent for Smith, 11 percent for Maddox and 48 percent undecided, with a 3 percentage point margin of error.
Davis' political strategist, Karl Koch, said it's too early to expect the race to produce a clear front-runner.
``It takes people awhile to start to focus,'' he said. ``I doubt you'll see any dramatic shifts in the polls one way or the other before the end of the year.''
But some political analysts say Davis isn't performing up to expectations.
``Out of the gate, the expectation was that Jim Davis would have a commanding lead over Rod Smith and Scott Maddox,'' said University of South Florida political scientist Darryl Paulson.
A Built-In Advantage?
Paulson said he expected that because of the large population base in Davis' Tampa Bay area home, compared with Smith's home of Alachua and Maddox's Tallahassee turf. And because, ``as a multiterm congressional candidate, Davis should have a built-in fundraising advantage over Smith, a state senator.''
Paulson is a Republican, but some other analysts agree.
``My expectation had been that Davis would lead in fundraising and go into the primary season in a strong position,'' said political scientist Lance deHaven Smith of Florida State University.
Koch said those expectations were unrealistic.
He noted that Smith is chairman of a powerful Senate committee - agriculture - that provides him a strong fundraising base. That gives Smith better opportunities than Davis to work one of the state's biggest fundraising sources, the Tallahassee lobbyist industry.
``I don't know if being a member of Congress is an advantage or not. There's not a lot of folks in Washington who care who the governor of Florida is,'' he said.
Davis has one other advantage in the race - the endorsement of former Gov. and U.S. Sen.Bob Graham, probably the state's most revered Democrat.
With that endorsement, said Fred Levin, a veteran Democratic Party supporter from Pensacola, ``I would think Davis would be way out in front, but it's not happening.''
Even after getting a call from Graham inviting him to a Davis appearance in the Panhandle, Levin said, he decided to go with Smith.
But Hillsborough Clerk of Court Pat Frank, a veteran local Democratic leader, discounts the influence of endorsements.
``It's secondary to voters,'' she said. ``It's like your running mate. It may bring in a few votes, but it doesn't make the day.''
Getting Their Names Out There
Smith has been working hard to make inroads in Davis' Tampa Bay base. He has been in Tampa at least one day a week for the past three weeks, including an appearance at last week's Democratic Party black caucus banquet.
Smith has little to show in the way of concrete results from his work in Tampa - one coup was recruiting prominent trial lawyer and Democratic fundraiser Barry Cohen - but says he is laying groundwork here.
Koch said Davis isn't worried about losing Tampa support.
``We've assumed from the beginning that everybody in the race is going to try to establish support here, but Jim's long representation of the area and his deep roots in the community mean he'll have an edge,'' Koch said.
Davis, meanwhile, is working to build the name recognition that none of the three Democrats has much of.
He is spending the month of August crisscrossing Florida, putting himself before small gatherings of Democrats from Panama City to Okeechobee, from St. Augustine to Stuart.
This kind of statewide puddle-hopping, unusual this early in a campaign, is designed to make him better known to Democrats across the state, and to raise the profile of the Democratic primary for governor - a race overshadowed by the high-profile Republican primaries for governor and U.S. Senate.
``Everybody [in the primary] is going to have to struggle for name recognition,'' said John Behlolavek, a political historian at USF.
``The focus of the general public right now is not on the governor's race. It's on gas prices and the war, and when they do think about politics, it's Katherine Harris in the U.S. Senate race.
``It's going to be a struggle for any of these Democrats to break out,'' he said.
Reporter William March can be reached at (813) 259-7761.
Rod Smith is one of the few Democratic statewide candidates to come along in recent years that actually has a chance of winning a statewide race.
A proven 'Republican slayer', he has a brilliant intellect, a moderate political disposition (like the vast majority of the voters of this state) and is an impassioned and charismatic speaker (who was the last viable Democrat that could claim that desciption?)
He is running a methodical and disciplined campaign but one that is still not afraid to take risks and is positioning himself nicely as an underdog "dark horse" who will utlimately cross the finish line first.
Because the Republicans fear Smith the most of the three contenders, Democrats would be lucky to have him as their nominee, but considering their brilliant political wisdom of late, will proabably nominate a sure loser like Maddox instead.
I strongly disagree with the above post. As a Democrat with substantial statewide experience I believe Rod Smith would probably be the WORST potential candidate for the Democrats. Rod Smith is being anointed by the same Democratic Party elite who gave us Bill McBride in 2002, and countless losses in State Senate and State House races. The consultants pulling the strings on his campaign have over and over again picked the wrong candidates for office, assuming moderation is the right course. I enjoyed the above post by Tim L, and some GOP hack both of whom made it clear that a Smith nomination will cost the Democrats votes of environmentalists and soccer moms, too critical swing groups in Central Florida, a region which has been proven to decide just about every close statewide election. I also agree strongly with Kartik’s initial theory that South Florida is meaningless in a General Election as most voters are safe and the turnout is remarkably low for an area with so many people.
The group running Rod Smith’s campaign believes his record on law enforcement will help us. But in reality Charlie Crist will move as far to the right as he needs on that issue. They think Smith’s ties to Agriculture will help us win those voters, but Florida is THE MOST URBAN STATE IN THE SOUTH, AND AMONG THE MOST URBAN ANYWHERE IN THE NATION as defined by the census bureau. So basing a campaign and nominating a candidate based on his tied to the Agriculture community shows precisely why the Democrats continue to lose nearly every contested election in the state. Smith’s tied to Sugar as described by an April 2005 St Pete Times article are toxic. Charlie Crist is already supported by many environmentalists in both parties. Perhaps with Rod Smith as our nominee we can seek the anti-everglades vote, those who want to pave over the Everglades, deplete South Florida of water and make sure all the wildlife in the glades and Florida Bay pass into the sunset. Perhaps that constituency is larger than we think, but I doubt it. Maybe we can seek the pro NRA crowd with Rod Smith as our nominee. I mean, gun control couldn’t be popular in this state……it’s just an accident that seven Republican Congressman (out of 13 at the time) from this state voted for the Brady Law.
In short what works in Baker County doesn’t work in Orange and Pinellas Counties. I wouldn’t want to nominate a South Florida liberal either because they will have similar problems in Central Florida just from a different perspective.
I do not agree that an uphill fight exists against the GOP. The Republicans run of luck in this state is about to run out and I think we'll win every statewide office this go round.
You guys are nutz
Rod Smith's 2 main general consultants (Don't worry I am not referring to you Kartik)are easily the worst in the state. However, I understand he's hired a good campaign manager so perhaps that will offset that. If not the Rod Smith campaign will look like a campaign version of Forrest Gump when they face the Republican nominee. To say that his team is overmatched is an understatement.
I agree with the previous post and I would add that Rod Smith took conservative stances on all the wrong issues: gun control & the environment. Does he really think that the NRA & Big Sugar will exclusively support him over the Republican nominee? That's ludicrous. He would have a shot at Republican women (one of Clinton's key demographic targets) with being conservative on economic issues while being pro-environment and pro-gun control. Instead, he's giving a way these voters to the Republican nominee. Maybe he will won "some" NASCAR dads up north but it won't be enough. If he ran against Crist in particular he will get killed in the 1-4 corridor and there goes the race. While he's a better candidate then McBride he wouldn't fare any better in a general election against the Republican nominee. The guy can't excite his base (which is important in a non presidential election) and can't win over swing voters. The fact that he's banking on offsetting that by swiping some voters from the GOP in North Florida which is the least populated voter region, shows just how far off hsi strategy is. However, its a good story to tell and it makes sense if you don't have a good idea of where the voters really are. So I expect Rod Smith to continue this feel good I am going to win North Florida story and that's how I am going to win the race. If that makes the Rod Smith team feel good then good for them. But as a democrat I am sick of deluding ourselves every campaign cycle its almost a sickness. It's ironic but I am sure not a coincidence that the same Dem operatives are usually behind these far fetched stories each cycle. Its the same old tune we got the Republicans where we want them until election day when we get creamed. Nonetheless, I don't expect Smith to be the nomineee anyway we should be discussing Jim Davis chances really.
Post a Comment
<< Home