Wednesday, July 26, 2006

Q poll among Democrats seems skewed

The new Quinnipiac University poll taken among likely Democratic voters gives Congressman Jim Davis a 28 point lead over State Senator Rod Smith. I don't doubt that Davis is leading, probably by double digits. What I do question is not only the margain but the high percentage that recognize Davis' name. Considering neither candidate has cultivated a statewide constituency outside of activist groups and political insiders, it is completly unrealistic that 47% of likely Democratic voters support Jim Davis.

In my opinion, the race for the Democratic nomination is still very much up for grabs, with Davis holding an edge but Smith having an excellent statewide infrastructure of elected officials and activists to make a strong run for the Primary. Over on the GOP side, Charlie Crist has the nomination pretty much sealed. Crist has an overwhelming advantage in the I-4 corridor and now is beginning to solidify his gains among Republican insiders and elected officials.

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