Democrats Possibly Returning with 16 Senators?

Not only are the Senate Democrats hopeful about picking up Jim Sebesta's seat with Charlie Justice but now recent polls indicate that Tom Lee's seat in very conservative Eastern Hillsborough County (areas like Brandon and Plant City) as well as parts of Polk and Pasco indicate a dead heat. Democrat Stephan Gorham is a war veteran that is pro-life and against gun control. The Democrats used to win in places like Plant City with candidates like Gorham, and it appears Sen. Steve Geller was wise enough to buck the recent bias in the Democratic Party against conservative candidates and recruit a potential star.

Davis Closing Fast

Several polls from national firms have been released this week showing Jim Davis closing the gap in the Governor's Race. While a victory for Davis remains a long shot, no doubt exists that the closing of the polls helps Democrats down ballot for Senate and House as well as Cabinet offices. Most surprising about the polling is that Crist does not enjoy the usual large margins GOP candidates are accustomed to in North Florida, but as long as Crist continues to lead in the I-4 corridor he will be the Governor.

Times Union Endorses Sink

Well, every Election season has it's shockers even before the votes are tallied. Alex Sink, the Democratic candidate for CFO has won the endorsement of the ultra-conservative editorial board of the Florida Times Union. Without a doubt, this is a major boost to Sink and probably speaks more about the lack of depth Tom Lee has on financial issues than anything.

Dead Heat in Cabinet Races?

I must say I am shocked. Not long ago I predicted the Democratic wave sweeping the nation, especially the lower midwest (Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio and PA) would not make it to Florida. Perhaps I was wrong. While Charlie Crist still enjoys a healthy lead in the Governor's race, Alex Sink and Tom Lee are in a dead heat in the CFO race according to a new Mason-Dixon poll while Skip Campbell trails Bill McCollum by only 3 points. When you consider that both Republican candidates should have much higher statewide name ID then their Democratic opponents, those numbers are extremely encouraging for the D's.

Davis Ads Should Tighten Race

Jim Davis after a few weeks of being dark is finally back up on the air in mass. The new ads produced by Squier/Knapp, a leading Washington DC Democratic firm are excellent single issue ads. They don't mix messages and they don't try and cover too much ground like so many political ads these days. Davis' :30 second spots have now been running for close to a week so I'd expect some tightening is currently a 15-20 point lead for Charlie Crist.

Statewide Thoughts

This past week I traveled the state and found that the political season is pretty much status quo when compared to past mid term elections. This does not bode well for the Democrats whose recent performance in state level races has been nothing short of pathetic. While a definite national Democratic wave is sweeping the nation, much like 1998 it seems to be stopping at the Florida-Georgia border. (come to think of it, unlike 1998 when Georgia experienced a Democratic sweep maybe Georgia will stem the Dem tide also this go round.)

Greetings from St Petersburg

I'm here in Pinellas County on a fact finding mission and as usual the best place to gague swing voters is the I-4 corridor. Enthusiasim seems to be peaking among Democrats, not only because of the Foley scandal but also because of Bob Woodward's new book which takes the administration to task for the handling of the Iraq War.

The hot State Senate contest is this area. Rep. Kim Berfield (R-Clearwater) is facing Rep. Charlie Justice (D- St Petersburg) for the right to replace term limited Republican Sen. Jim Sebesta. This campaign is about the nastiest and most personal I have seen in some time. The GOP seems desperate to hold this seat, even though in past elections they have had little trouble holding similar type seats in the state Legislature. The aggressive nature of the Berfield effort indicates to me some worry on the part of GOP strategists that they are going to lose this race.

The Foley Scandal's Impact on Florida Elections will be Minimal

Democrats throughout Florida are hailing the disgraceful exit from office of Rep. Mark Foley (R-West Palm Beach) as godsend for Democrats. While the Foley scandal has had a major impact on polling nationally, it has had little if any affect here in Florida. Why? The Florida Republican Party continues to run well disciplined, on message campaigns and while Foley was a Florida Republican, the party has little connection to his bad behavior and no connection to the cover up which was engaged in by the Congressional wing of the party. Charlie Crist continues to beam TV ads throughout the state while Jim Davis and Florida Democratic Party are desperate to find money to get on the air. Every four years during the midterm elections it seems, the same bad things happen with Florida Democrats.